Excitement is reaching a fever pitch for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, a concert film that many hope will rejuvenate the fall movie season when it comes to theatres in just a few weeks.
Swift’s loyal fanbase, commonly referred to as Swifties, is preparing for what promises to be an unprecedented event. Preliminary data from the National Research Group projects that the film could make its domestic debut with a robust box office of around $75 million, and there’s considerable buzz that the numbers could soar even higher, potentially exceeding $100 million or even reaching $125 million. It’s worth mentioning that such forecasts can be unpredictable, as evidenced by the surprising $162 million opening of the ‘Barbie’ concert film, which was initially estimated at $75 million.
In an unexpected announcement, Taylor Swift’s team partnered with AMC Theatres in late August to reveal that the movie documenting her hugely popular Eras Tour will be released in theatres this October. This unique collaboration with AMC, the biggest theatre chain both in the U.S. and worldwide, and Variance for securing bookings with other theatres, signifies an unconventional distribution strategy.
This comes as a breath of fresh air for the movie industry, which has been affected by ongoing labour disputes involving writers and actors, leading to the delay of several major fall premieres. For example, Sony’s Kraven the Hunter was postponed from its initial October 6 release to August of the following year, while Warner Bros. and Legendary’s Dune: Part Two was moved from November 3 to March 2024.
Projected to become a pop culture phenomenon like the summertime blockbuster Barbie, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour has prompted various mid-tier and smaller films to shift their release schedules to avoid a head-to-head battle.
It’s important to note that this is a concert film with a limited run over a few weekends, making industry insiders keen to see how the film’s earnings will be front-loaded.
If the predictions hold true, the film has the potential to set a new record for the highest-grossing concert film’s opening weekend in North America. The existing record is held by 2011’s Justin Bieber: Never Say Never, which earned a lifetime domestic total of $73 million and an additional $26 million internationally, totalling $99 million. Michael Jackson’s 2009 film This Is It garnered $72.1 million domestically and a global tally of $181.9 million. Source